Executive Summary: The world has transitioned from a bipolar Cold War era to a multipolar state, witnessing the military and economic strengths of multiple countries, regions, and blocs. While international collaboration for economic development and maintaining peace and security has been a historical inclination, the current scenario emphasizes the greater necessity of international alliances. This article examines key military and political alliances, their current and future challenges and opportunities, and their potential impact on the world's political and security landscape. By exploring issues such as NATO member states' defense spending, the scope of EU's Article 42.7, and the development of QUAD, this article analyzes the current operations and future trajectories of military alliances. Additionally, it highlights the potential of BRICS and ASEAN, showcasing the strengths of the Global South while acknowledging their limitations and challenges. These alliances will undeniably wield an increasing influence on the current and future geopolitical and economic spheres despite their paradoxical effects.
Introduction and background
The history of international cooperation and collaboration dates back to ancient civilizations when nations recognized the importance of ensuring their security for stability and economic growth. Over the past two millennia, human history has been marked by dynamic and evolving polarizations that have shaped, reshaped, and sometimes terminated collaborations and alliances between nations. The Anglo-Portuguese Alliance, established in 1373, is the oldest military alliance that is still in effect. It was created between the Kingdoms of England and Portugal, with both sides pledging to maintain 'perpetual friendship’. At the tail end of the colonial era, the world saw the formation of hostile alliances that ultimately led to two World Wars. However, the alliances before the World Wars were typically formed more simply and did not last long. After the Second World War, many countries acknowledged the importance of military alliances as a key deterrent for national security. In the wake of strategic interests, more intricate military alliances were established. Simultaneously, many countries also sought economic partnerships at regional and global scales due to geopolitical and economic considerations, thereby highlighting the multifaceted nature of international alliances and their impact on global economics and security. This article offers valuable perspectives on establishing, maintaining, and dissolving key military and economic alliances worldwide.
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation)
In the aftermath of World War II, the global stage saw the formation of two significant military alliances, each rooted in contrasting ideological principles—capitalism and communism. NATO was established to safeguard Western Europe from potential communist aggression from the East, while the Warsaw Pact, led by the former Soviet Union, represented the interests of the Eastern bloc. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of communist regimes in Eastern and Central Europe, the Warsaw Pact dissolved. At the same time, NATO continued to operate beyond the Cold War. The conflicts in the former Yugoslav republics and ongoing terrorist threats post-9/11 underscored the importance of the NATO alliance, prompting military intervention to counter Slobodan Milošević’s aggressive Serbian regime and dismantle the Afghan Taliban.
Arguably, NATO is the most powerful military alliance in the world at present. Its military strength relies on the defense capabilities of its member states. NATO derives its defense budget from its allied member states. Each member state's Ministry of Defense provides estimates and projected contributions by an agreed-upon framework. These amounts signify the national governments' financial commitment within the specified fiscal year. NATO also incorporates economic and demographic data from the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission (DG ECFIN) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
During his time in the White House and more recently as a presidential candidate, President Donald Trump frequently criticized the defense budget of NATO member states. His remarks sparked outrage, especially among European members. However, President Trump's criticism does not fully reflect several European countries' recent increase in defense spending. Historically, Germany was a low-spender within the alliance, and it pledged to allocate more than 2% of GDP to defense by 2024, up from 1.57% just a year ago. Similarly, Poland has also increased its military spending in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Many may argue that President Trump's scepticism about NATO is an aberration. From that perspective, a favorable outcome in the November 2024 US Presidential election could help settle the debate over budget spending and alleviate further concerns. However, the alliance faces a more fundamental issue, as the US is expected to prioritize its focus on China over the defense of Europe. Some quarters in Europe are advocating for a greater European independence to safeguard the security interests of European nations. The EU could extend this opportunity. The Treaty of Lisbon incorporates Article 42.7, which states: "If an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other EU countries have an obligation to aid and assist it by all means in their power." Some analysts view this clause as more robust than NATO's Article 5 in terms of providing support to an individual member country. Notably, despite historically remaining outside the NATO alliance, Sweden and Finland, both EU member countries, decided to join the military bloc following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, the possibility of NATO expansion remains viable, as Moldova and Georgia have expressed interest, while Ukraine's potential inclusion remains uncertain.
Other military alliances:
During the Cold War, in addition to NATO and the Warsaw Pact, there were efforts to establish military alliances in different regions of the world. The Vietnam War in Asia and the persistent fear of communist revolutions in Africa and South America led the US to seek defense and military partnerships with countries outside of Europe and North America. In September 1954, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) was formed by the United States, France, Great Britain, New Zealand, Australia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Pakistan. SEATO was established to counter communist expansion following the Korean War and conflicts in former Indochina. The treaty specifically focused on defensive actions to combat growing subversive activities in the region driven by communist ideology. SEATO did not maintain its military force and relied on the combined striking power of its member states. The organization was officially dissolved in 1977.
In the current world, there are numerous bilateral and multilateral pacts and collaborations between countries. Some of these are defined by key strategic polarization of global geopolitics. For instance, the Russia–Syria–Iran–Iraq coalition (RSII coalition) works to share joint intelligence on the threat of Islamic State in that region. The front is also referred to as 4+1 (in which the "plus one" refers to Hezbollah of Lebanon). Russia additionally has a security and defense partnership with North Korea. The Alliance of Sahel States comprises Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. It originated due to shared political interests and in response to the challenges of the West African political bloc (ECOWAS).
The escalating tension between China and Western nations is expected to drive closer political and military cooperation among the US/UK and countries in the Asia-Pacific region. AUKUS, a trilateral agreement involving Australia, the UK, and the USA, aims to address the growing Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. Efforts are underway to form a broader coalition to counter China's power in the area. The QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), which includes the USA, Australia, India, and Japan, can potentially become a significant force against China. Despite being established in 2007, the alliance initially needed help to gain momentum. However, there are now more substantial indications that the member nations are working to strengthen the alliance. India’s intricate security interests in the region and its historical and ongoing association with Russia have been cited as challenges in the US-India diplomatic relationship. For example, the two countries have had disagreements over the activities of Sikh separatist leaders in the US and Canada, as well as political crises in India’s neighboring countries, such as Bangladesh and Myanmar. Additionally, India’s influential role within BRICS is sometimes seen as a possible challenge to the US-led global order.
Major political and economic alliances involving Russia and the Global South
BRICS
The BRICS alliance seeks to counter the influence of the US and the West in the global economy. It comprises its original members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and has since grown to include the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Iran. BRICS accounts for almost 45% of the world's population and over 25% of the global GDP. BRICS actively seeks to exert its leadership in the Global South by creating the New Development Bank, an alternative to the IMF and World Bank. BRICS aims to create an alternative to the U.S. dollar for global trade. The political power of BRICS cannot be ignored. Most BRICS nations offered explicit or implicit support to Russia, after it invaded Ukraine, demonstrating a subtle hint of polarization.
It is projected that China's GDP will surpass that of the U.S. by the end of the 2020s, establishing China as the world's largest economy. Additionally, it is estimated that India will overtake the U.S. around the middle of the century. With the continued expansion of BRICS in the upcoming years, the group could pose an economic and political challenge to the U.S.
ASEAN
Many regional cooperation bodies have developed outside of BRICS to support political, economic, and cultural cooperation among member states. ASEAN is one of the most prominent initiatives in the Global South. The need for economic and cultural collaboration in response to events such as the Vietnam War and the communist emergency in Malaysia drove the formation of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Initially comprising the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand, ASEAN expanded to include ten member states, representing 600 million people and nearly 6.5% of the global GDP. The combined GDP of ASEAN Member States (AMS) reached USD 3.8 trillion in 2023. It is projected that by 2030, AMS will emerge as the fourth-largest economy in the world. The geographic location, entrepreneurial vision and a strong connection with the rest of the world drive the success of this bloc. ASEAN is steadfast in its commitment to diversifying the supply chain and has successfully attracted numerous investors, particularly in the areas of sustainability and technology. Notably, major technology firms like Amazon, Google, and NTT have established regional operations.
In December 2008, a charter was signed to strengthen ASEAN as a closely integrated political and economic alliance, similar to the EU. The declaration of ASEAN Concord II in 2003 laid the groundwork for establishing the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), which seeks to create a unified market and production base, enhance competitiveness, foster equitable economic development, and fully integrate the region into the global economy.
Despite the significant progress made by the bloc in enabling the free movement of people and goods within the region, there are substantial challenges in attaining a single market status similar to that of the EU. Income disparities and inadequate infrastructure make it difficult to implement freedom of movement fully. ASEAN countries have taken limited measures to facilitate skilled labor migration, and professionals may need help recognising their qualifications in other countries.
Pros and cons of alliances
Economic alliances such as the EU and ASEAN were established to promote regional cooperation. These alliances have expanded and strengthened over the past three decades, highlighting the increasing significance of economic partnerships in a more multipolar world. Alliances allow countries to benefit from cooperation and build their own network of support, enhancing their international stature. This is evident as emerging countries like India, South Africa, and Brazil have gained greater prominence than ever before through the formation of various military and political alliances.
Alliances are strategically formed to create collaborative platforms that protect and advance shared interests, fostering synergy and economic advantages by exchanging resources and expertise. Additionally, alliances reinforce political positions by upholding common geopolitical interests. Specifically, an alliance provides a country with a coalition of partners and the guarantee of support during political or economic instability periods or when confronted by opposition from another nation. For instance, both the UK's Salisbury poisonings and India's border conflict with China required these countries to leverage their network of allies and partners to gain global support and assert their perspective on the international stage.
Alliances can be demanding regarding resources, requiring significant commitments from member nations. Consequently, they are often vulnerable to populist political rhetoric. The controversy surrounding issues such as NATO member states' defense budgets and EU membership (e.g., Brexit) illustrates the political challenges member nations and their governments face. Alliances are also considered supranational entities that could limit individual countries' independent and adaptive decision-making.
In today's multipolar world, the risks of catastrophic wars have significantly increased. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, have the potential to escalate and draw in more countries. Alliances in politics, economics, and defense during these volatile situations can have both positive and negative effects. While these alliances can act as deterrents and support peace negotiations and the reconstruction of economies after conflicts, their existence can also embolden war-mongering parties and further escalate conflicts. Nevertheless, these alliances will continue to play a crucial role globally.
Dr Bidit L. Dey
Associate Professor in Marketing
Sheffield University Management School (the University of Sheffield), UK
LinkedIn: Bidit Dey | LinkedIn
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